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香港楼价下半年料跌5%","信银国际最新报告预测，美联储可能在2024年加息1-2次，香港楼市受加息预期及股市波动影响，下半年或下跌5%。该行同时看好港股龙头科技、金融及电讯板块表现。","\u003Cp>中信银行（国际）最新发布经济展望报告指出，美联储可能在2024年第一季度重启加息周期，预计全年加息1至2次。这一货币政策调整将对香港金融市场产生连锁反应，特别是楼市可能在下半年出现价格回调。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>香港楼市：先扬后抑全年仍涨5%\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>报告分析认为，虽然香港最优惠利率（P息）未必会立即跟随美息上调，但在整个加息周期中仍将逐步回升。信银国际指出，\u003Cstrong>市场加息预期、股市波动带来的财富效应减弱，以及内地资本管制收紧\u003C\u002Fstrong>将成为影响香港楼市的三大关键因素。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Foss.articledatacenter.com\u002Fadc\u002Fmedia\u002F92\u002Fadcimg_01kxgj6y1kmsvfzpdfw2yz5p94.jpg\" alt=\"香港住宅楼宇外景\">\u003Cfigcaption>信银国际预测香港楼价将在2024年下半年出现调整（资料图片）\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cp>值得注意的是，由于上半年香港楼价已累计上涨约11%，即使下半年预计下跌5%，全年仍可维持5%的涨幅。该行特别强调，香港刚性需求依然稳固，特别是通过「高才通」计划引进的人才及内地学生的租赁需求，将为2025年楼市提供支撑，预计明年楼价仍有望实现5%的增长。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote>「在加息环境下，投资者需关注利率敏感型资产的配置策略。」报告特别提醒。\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Ch2>内地经济：政策力度有望加大\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>对于内地经济，信银国际维持2023年GDP增长4.9%的预测。报告指出，当前内需复苏仍显乏力，预计政府将在下半年加大经济刺激力度，包括可能推出降息降准等货币政策，以及通过财政政策提振消费。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Foss.articledatacenter.com\u002Fadc\u002Fmedia\u002F0d\u002Fadcimg_01kxgj6y1rvwh3e1d3h3kr322v.jpg\" alt=\"中国城市商业区景观\">\u003Cfigcaption>内地经济政策调整将影响香港金融市场（信银国际供图）\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cp>该行认为，提高居民收入水平的政策措施有望陆续出台，这将从根本上增强消费能力，为经济复苏注入持续动力。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>港股展望：聚焦三大板块机会\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>在投资市场方面，信银国际个人及商务银行业务投资主管张浩恩表示，亚洲其他市场如韩国、台湾地区的调整可能促使资金流向估值更具吸引力的港股。该行维持恒生指数28000点的年度目标。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Foss.articledatacenter.com\u002Fadc\u002Fmedia\u002F69\u002Fadcimg_01kxgj6y1wt4p8m3peh6t7x7h1.jpg\" alt=\"人工智能概念图示\">\u003Cfigcaption>AI技术发展将利好香港科技板块（Reuters）\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cp>具体板块选择上，报告建议重点关注：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch3>1. 科技龙头受益AI发展\u003C\u002Fh3>\u003Cp>人工智能技术的持续突破将惠及香港上市的科技龙头企业，特别是在芯片和云计算领域具有优势的公司。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch3>2. 金融板块受益高息环境\u003C\u002Fh3>\u003Cp>持续的高利率环境有利于银行等金融机构的净息差扩大，内银、内险股具有较好的防御性。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch3>3. 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